There has been a significant change in the risk landscape in recent years. Climate change is only one of the many factors that increase the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events, triggering compound disasters with unforeseeable consequences. A single disaster, such as an unexpected flood, can turn into a cascading event if an earthquake happens, causing disruptions in communicative networks, unclear evacuation behaviors and resulting in road congestion and further accidents. Since people differ in their risk perceptions, their preparedness and abilities to respond, while being influenced by their social relations, individual responses to the event can differ greatly. This heterogeneity and the related complexity make the prediction of behaviors in the emergency phase extremely difficult.

The aim of this inter- and transdisciplinary project is to investigate the behavioral and social complexity of disaster preparedness in cascading disasters. The project will combine sociological theorizing, agent-based modeling and citizen science to develop a set of agent-based models and simulations of a cascading disaster, backed by insights from citizen science, and its consequences for the province of Groningen (NL).

More specifically, the project will focus on communication strategies (what and how is communicated in the case of a cascading disaster; trust in institutions and science; social networks underlying the spread of information), decision making (whether to evacuate or not; whether to insure your house or not) and response (how to evacuate and whether and how to follow emergency responders’ instructions).
This project brings risk perception, decision making and social relationships to the front of disaster preparedness, and it uses agent-based modeling and social simulation as a tool to gain insights into complex social behaviors.

The province of Groningen, due to its existing vulnerabilities, offers an instructive case study to model the combination of a major earthquake and a dyke failure. The project will be interdisciplinary (integrating theories from analytical sociology, cognitive psychology and citizen science), multi-method (agent-based modeling and citizen science) and transdisciplinary (adopting a problem-centered approach that allows citizens, first responders and policy makers to contribute to the development of the project).

This project is part of an interdisciplinary collaboration between Sociology, Complexity science and Agent-Based modeling.

The supervisory team is composed of:

Dr Wander Jager, University College Groningen, Promoter
Prof. Andreas Flache, Sociology, Promoter
Dr Francesca Giardini, Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Supervisor
Dr Mohammad Gharesifard, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Supervisor.

The tasks of the PhD candidate are

- Conduct interdisciplinary research that results in a dissertation and is in line with the objectives and requirements of the project.
- Organize and execute the data collection for the different studies.
- Publish the results of the research in international scientific journals.
- Present the research findings to fellow scientists and developers in the larger project, and collaborate with them.
- Provide a limited number of educational activities at the Sociology department.

Organisation
The University of Groningen is a research university with a global outlook, deeply rooted in Groningen, City of Talent. Quality has had top priority for four hundred years, and with success: the University is currently in or around the top 100 on several influential ranking lists.

The Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences excels in teaching and research in the fields of human behavior, thinking, learning, and how people live together. We work on societal issues and problems that people experience in daily life. Central to this is individual and societal resilience and how to increase this. To this end, we focus on the topics of migration, the environment and climate, health, upbringing and education, the protection of vulnerable minorities, and sustainable partnerships. The Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences employs over 800 staff members. For more information about the Faculty please check the link https://www.rug.nl/gmw/.

The project is funded by the M20 PhD Program 2023 and the activities of the projects will be conducted in close connection with the Agricola School for Sustainable Development. The student will be trained in the ICS and will be hired at the Department of Sociology. The Interuniversity Center for Social Science Theory and Methodology (ICS) is an internationally renowned Research Center and Graduate School in the field of Sociology, located in the Netherlands at the Universities of Groningen, Utrecht, Nijmegen, and Amsterdam (UvA).

For this position, you are expected to

- Have a (Research) Master's degree in Sociology, Psychology, Computer Science (or a related discipline).
- Have a solid training in either quantitative methods and statistics, and/or computational social science, and a motivation to learn new methodologies.
- Experience with agent-based modeling and/or knowledge of citizen science or other participatory approaches is an advantage, but proved experience and interest in the social sciences is a requirement.
- Be enthusiastic about writing international publications and a dissertation.
- Have good academic English writing skills.
- Have good social and communication skills and are willing to work in an interdisciplinary team.
- Be enthusiastic about translating scientific insights into practical guidelines and advice.
- Have good organizational skills and the motivation to organize and realize data collection.
- Have demonstrable competences as conceptual capacity, presenting, planning and organizing and monitoring.
- Speaking Dutch (or willingness to learn it) is considered an advantage.

Fixed-term contract: 48 months.

We offer you in accordance with the Collective Labour Agreement for Dutch Universities

- A salary of € 2,872 gross per month in the first year of the appointment, rising to € 3,670 gross per month in the fourth year for a full-time position.
- A holiday allowance of 8% gross annual income an 8.3% end-of-the-year allowance.
- Attractive secondary terms of employment.
- The position is classified in accordance with the University Job Classification (UFO) system; the UFO profile is PhD candidate.
- A temporary employment of 1.0 FTE for a period of four years. You will first be employed for a period of one year. After a positive result and development interview, the contract will be extended for the remaining period of three years.

Intended starting date: March 1st, 2025